Sarima Time Series Model Application to Microwave Transmission of Yeji-Salaga (Ghana) Line-Of-Sight Link
F. K. Oduro-Gyimah, E. Harris, K. F. Darkwah

Abstract
Microwave links, which are used for communication, are mostly over land. The behaviour of the links over a water body depends on various factors such as atmospheric conditions, water body behaviour and the environment in which the link is operated. The Yeji-Salaga Line-of-Sight (LOS) microwave telecommunication link is along the Volta Lake. This study therefore aimed at investigating the microwave transmission on the Yeji-Salaga link using time series analysis. Sequence of observations of Receive Signal Level (RSL) data were collected over five years between January, 2006 and December, 2010. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed on the RSL data. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 2)12 was chosen to be the best model. Out of term forecasting with the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 2)12 model produced a stable forecast pattern of 24 months contrary to expectations. Forecast values agree well with the observed data for the out of term period from January, 2011 to July, 2011 for which forecast data was available. Our findings lead us to propose the introduction of frequency diversity technology as add-on to the existing space diversity technology for improving the received transmission signal

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